The state is still stuck with a stubbornly high unemployment rate and few job openings, but things may be looking up for California in the year ahead.

That's the conclusion of two forecasts released this week by UCLA and Chapman University in Orange. Both predict that California's economy will expand at a faster pace than the nation's, thanks in part to improvement in global trade and the technology sector.

"The growth sectors in manufacturing are computers and electronics, medical devices and aerospace components," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "Those are proportionally California export items."

On the downside, however, the state's housing market will remain in the doldrums, and unemployment will continue to exceed that of the nation overall.

"Construction will still be a weak factor," said Esmael Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. "Nonresidential is really holding down the sector."

Chapman predicts that California will add 167,000 new jobs next year, while UCLA economists expect the state to add 183,000. UCLA also forecasts that the unemployment rate in California will slowly shrink to 10.9% by the end of next year and not fall below 10% until the end of 2012.

Residential construction will continue to grow through the next two years, but other types of building will face more pain next year before beginning to rebound in 2012. More foreclosures have yet to hit the market in inland areas, which will add to excess supply.

Exports are expected to lead the state's recovery, Adibi said. He also predicts the high-tech sector will start to hire again soon as overseas consumers demand California products.

Consumption in Asia is particularly positive for California, Nickelsburg said.

California's high unemployment rate may also drive more workers to growing industries to seek jobs. Typically, people move to expanding sectors more quickly in areas of high unemployment, he said.

Nickelsburg also said that with Jerry Brown's election last month, Democrats will control both the Legislature and the governor's office, which could enable the state to pass budgets and bills more quickly. That could increase spending on infrastructure projects and create jobs.

Consumer spending will also be stronger in California than in the nation, Adibi of Chapman said. The depth of the recession in the state led many consumers to save rather than spend; now that consumer confidence is recovering, they'll be able to make the purchases they had put off.

Here's how the two reports stack up in other key areas:

• Personal income: Chapman and UCLA forecast that personal income in California will grow 3% in 2011 to $1.7 trillion. By comparison, UCLA said personal income grew 2.7% this year, while Chapman said it rose 2.2%.

• Construction: Chapman and UCLA predict that the value of commercial real estate permits will shrink in 2011, although that value grew about 3% this year. UCLA says the value will climb again in 2012.

• National employment: Chapman predicts the unemployment rate will fall to 8.8% in the third quarter of 2011, and drop to 8.6% by the end of that year. UCLA says the nation's unemployment rate will remain above 9% through most of 2012, slipping to 8.9% only in the fourth quarter of 2012. The U.S. unemployment rate is now 9.8% and the California rate is 12.4%.

• GDP: Chapman forecasts that the nation's real gross domestic product will grow 3.3% in 2011, compared with UCLA's forecast of 2.2%.

Economists agree that even as the GDP grows slightly, job creation is a long way off. Part of the problem is the surfeit of workers in trades such as construction, who aren't able to find other jobs.

In past recessions, displaced construction workers might go into other industries, such as manufacturing. But increasing automation and outsourcing have eliminated many of those manufacturing jobs, UCLA economist Edward Leamer said. That means that even if GDP grows, unemployment could still remain high.

"As many as 5 million workers are not likely to be reemployed in construction, manufacturing and retail," Leamer wrote. "Those displaced workers are likely to have a difficult time finding jobs elsewhere."

That probably will mean that the nation will struggle as workers struggle to find jobs.

"The economy will continue to muddle through with modest growth and distressingly high unemployment," UCLA economist David Shulman wrote in the Anderson Forecast.

 By Alana Semuels, Los Angeles Times, 12-7-10