Interesting Times

National Real Estate Investor (NREI), 7-13-2011

NREI asked four forecasters to predict the near-term direction of leading indicators. Here are their responses:

1)  Robert Bach Chief Economist, Grubb & Ellis

    Prediction:“The slowdown that we're seeing now is a head fake; growth will be stronger by the fourth quarter.”

    Annualized GDP growth: 3.0%

    Core CPI inflation rate: 1.5%

    Monthly job gains/losses: +190,000

    10-year Treasury yield: 3.25%

    Crude oil (price per barrel): $85

 

2) Victor Calanog Chief Economist, Reis

    Prediction: “Multifamily is the belle of the ball, benefiting from further adversity in the single-family housing market.”

    Annualized GDP growth: 2.9%

    Core CPI inflation rate: 2.0%

    Monthly job gains/losses: +180,000

    10-year Treasury yield: 3.2%

    Crude oil (price per barrel): $100

 

3) Hessam Nadji Managing Director of Research Services, Marcus & Millichap

    Prediction:“We can expect to see a gradual drop in vacancy across all property types.”

    Annualized GDP growth: 4.2%

    Core CPI inflation rate: 1.6%

    Monthly job gains/losses: +250,000

    10-year Treasury yield: 3.6%

    Crude oil (price per barrel): $95

 

4) Ken Simonson Chief Economist, The Associated General Contractors of America

    Prediction: “There will be a major new source of oil by the end of 2011, either a new discovery or the beginnings of expanded production from a Middle Eastern or North African country.”

    Annualized GDP growth: 4.0%

    Core CPI inflation rate: 1.5%

    Monthly job gains/losses: +400,000

    10-year Treasury yield: 3.0%

    Crude oil (price per barrel): $85

 


Posted by John Bremner on July 13th, 2011 7:30 AMPost a Comment (0)

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