Interesting Times

by CalculatedRisk on 2/08/2012

Yesterday Goldman Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn argued that the labor force participation rate would remain "broadly flat at 63.7% through the end of 2013". He argued there would be a cyclical boost to the participation rate this year from the recovering economy, but a structural decline in the participation rate due to demographics. (Note: some decline in the participation rate has been expected over the next couple of decades).

The updated population controls from the 2010 Census showed a higher percentage of younger and older workers compared to the prime working age group (25 to 54), and also more women (participation rate is lower for women) than originally estimated - so the aggregate participation rate is now at 63.7%. Stehn argues that structural factors alone could push the aggregate participation rate down further to 63.1% by the end of 2012, but that this will probably be offset by more people returning to the labor force as the economy recovers.

The participation rate plays a key role in calculating to unemployment rate. First a few definitions from the BLS Glossary:

Civilian noninstitutional population: Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

Labor force: The labor force includes all persons classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the definitions contained in this glossary.

Labor force participation rate: The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force.

So a lower participation rate - with the same level of employment - would mean a lower unemployment rate.

Below is a table showing the sensitivity of the unemployment rate to three levels of the participation rate (centered around Goldman's forecast) and three rates of job creation for 2012. (note: this is mixing two different surveys - the household survey for the participation rate and unemployment rate, and the establishment survey for payroll jobs. Over time these two surveys move together, but there can be significant variability in the short run).

December 2012 Unemployment Rate based on Jobs added and Participation Rate
  Participation Rate
63.4% 63.7% 64.0%
Jobs added per month (000s) 150 7.6% 8.0% 8.5%
200 7.2% 7.7% 8.1%
250 6.9% 7.3% 7.8%

If the January pace of payroll employment growth continues (around 250 thousand jobs per month), and the participation rate stays at 63.7%, then the unemployment rate could fall to 7.3% in December 2012. But even at a slower pace of payroll growth, the unemployment rate could be at or below 8% by the end of the year - unless the participation rate rises or the economy slows sharply.

The recent FOMC projections (see below) are for the unemployment rate to be in the 8.2% to 8.5% range by Q4 2012, and perhaps the FOMC was expecting the participation rate to increase this year.

If the participation rate doesn't increase, and payroll growth continues (even at 150 thousand per month), then the FOMC projections are too high. But even if the FOMC revises down their unemployment rate forecast, they will still view a 7.5% to 8% unemployment rate at the end of 2012 as unacceptably high.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate1 2012 2013 2014
January 2012 Projections 8.2 to 8.5 7.4 to 8.1 6.7 to 7.6
1 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Posted by John Bremner on February 8th, 2012 8:41 AMPost a Comment (0)

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February 7th, 2012 8:58 AM

by CalculatedRisk on 2/06/2012

There have been some recent articles arguing the “housing bottom is nowhere in sight”. That isn’t my view.

First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

For the economy and jobs, the bottom for housing starts and new home sales is more important than the bottom for prices. However individual homeowners and potential home buyers are naturally more interested in prices. So when we discuss a “bottom” for housing, we need to be clear on what we mean.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.

As the first graph shows, housing starts, both total and single family, bottomed in 2009 and have mostly moved sideways since then - with some distortions due to the ill-conceived housing tax credit.

New Home SalesNew Home sales probably bottomed in mid-2010 and have flat lined since then.

Back in 2009, when I first wrote about the two bottoms, I thought we were close on housing starts and new home sales - but that it was "way too early to try to call the bottom in prices." In real terms, house prices have fallen another 10% to 15% since I wrote that post according to the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indexes.

And it now appears we can look for the bottom in prices. My guess is that nominal house prices, using the national repeat sales indexes and not seasonally adjusted, will bottom in March 2012.

The problem with using the house price indexes to look for a bottom is that they are reported with a significant lag. As an example, the recently released Case-Shiller index was for November and the index is an average of September, October and November - so it is a report for several months ago. The CoreLogic index is a little more current - the recent release was for December, and CoreLogic uses a weighted average for prices (December weighted the most) - but that is still quite a lag.

Both of those indexes will bottom seasonally around March, and then start increasing again.

There are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the price-to-rent ratio and real prices (especially if prices fall another 4% to 5% NSA between the November Case-Shiller report and the March report). Second the large decline in listed inventory means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several policy initiatives will lessen the pressure from distressed sales (the probable mortgage settlement, the HARP refinance program, and more).

Of course these are national price indexes and there will be significant variability across the country. Areas with a large backlog of distressed properties - especially some states with a judicial foreclosure process - will probably see further price declines.

And this doesn't mean prices will increase significantly any time soon. Usually towards the end of a housing bust, nominal prices mostly move sideways for a few years, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) could even decline for another 2 or 3 years.

But most homeowners and home buyers focus on nominal prices and there is reasonable chance that the bottom is here.


Posted by John Bremner on February 7th, 2012 8:58 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backing Bernanke

Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backing Bernanke

Procter & Gamble Co.’s failure to raise the price of Cascade dishwashing soap shows why investors are buying Treasuries at the lowest yields in history, giving the Federal Reserve more scope to boost the economy.

The world’s largest consumer-products company rolled back prices after an 8 percent increase lost the firm 7 percentage points of market share. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) started offering coupons on Huggies after resistance to the diapers’ cost. Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) raised prices at less than the inflation rate as patrons order more of Olive Garden’s discounted stuffed rigatoni than it anticipated.

Low inflation has continued to boost demand for Treasuries, keeping rates low as President Barack Obama finances a $1.1 trillion budget deficit to boost an economy still growing at rates below the 20-year average. The Fed set an annual inflation target of 2 percent two weeks ago, and policy makers suggested they may conduct a third round of bond purchases under a policy known as quantitative easing.

“Any way you look at it, the Treasury market is still expecting rather benign inflation, and we will be in a low-rate environment for some time,” David Ader, head of U.S. government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said Feb. 1 in a telephone interview.

Jobs, Earnings

Companies can’t raise prices because wage growth remains stunted, even though unemployment has started to recede. Average hourly earnings rose 1.9 percent in January from a year earlier, the smallest increase since April, and down from 3.2 percent in 2008 and 3.7 percent in January 2009, the Labor Department said Feb. 3. The jobless rate fell to 8.3 percent in January, the lowest level in three years, compared with a high of 10 percent in October 2009.

“This recovery has not been a great recovery with regard to income gains, and income gains are a function of both growth in wages and jobs,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, the chief investment strategist for fixed-income at BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said in a Feb. 1 interview in New York. “Why can’t you pass price increases through to consumers? It’s because consumers aren’t seeing income gains.”

BlackRock, which manages more than $1 trillion in assets, favors corporate, municipal and mortgage bonds, the firm said last month in a report.

The consumer price index will rise 2.1 percent this year and next, according to a Bloomberg survey of 66 economists. A bond market measure used by the Fed to forecast inflation starting five years from now fell to 2.50 percent from last year’s high of 3.23 percent in August and less than the average of 2.76 percent in the past decade.

Below Average

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose three basis points last week, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.92 percent in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The price of the 2 percent security due November 2021 fell 9/32, or $2.81 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 21/32.

The yield fell two basis points today to 1.9 percent at 12:22 p.m. in New York. The U.S. will auction $72 billion of three-, 10-, and 30-year securities this week.

Yields remain below their average of about 5.28 percent since 1990 even as Treasury sells record amounts of bonds to finance the Obama administration’s deficit. The U.S. will spend about 3.1 percent of gross domestic product servicing its $15.2 trillion of public debt, less than the 4.8 percent when President George H.W. Bush was in office, according to Office of Management and Budget and International Monetary Fund data.

Rising Returns

Subdued inflation and demand for safe assets as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis intensified helped propel returns on Treasuries to 10 percent, including reinvested interest, in the 12 months ended Jan. 31. Last year’s gain of 9.8 percent as measured by Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes beat the 2.1 percent rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500, including dividends.

While yields rose last week, they are down from Jan. 24, the day before the Fed said it would keep its benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent until at least 2014, a year later than planned, lowered its growth forecast and for the first time set 2 percent as its inflation target.

“There are lots of global and domestic headwinds, and the Fed is less concerned about inflation than they are making sure the economy is taking hold,” Scott Graham, head of government bond trading at Bank of Montreal’s BMO Capital Markets unit in Chicago, said Feb. 1 in a telephone interview. The firm is one of the 21 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed.

Loss Lookout

Low bond yields make investors more susceptible to losses should inflation and interest rates climb. Ten-year note yields will rise to 2.19 percent by mid-2012 and 2.57 percent by the end of the year, according to the weighted average in a Bloomberg News survey of more than 60 economists and analysts.

Investors, except for those owning 30-year bonds, are accepting negative yields after taking into account the consumer price index, a sign they may expect inflation to slow. Ten-year notes yield 1.08 percentage points less than the CPI.

“Inflationary or wage pressures will probably start to build at a higher unemployment level than they would have in the last decade,” said Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of Santa Monica, California-based Guggenheim Partners LLC, which oversees more than $125 billion, said Feb. 1.

The central bank printed money and bought $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds between 2008 and June 2011 to support the economy in two rounds of quantitative easing.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Jan. 25 that he’s considering another set of purchases. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey the same day estimated the central bank will buy mortgage bonds should the economy warrant more stimulus, with purchases of all types totaling $500 billion.

‘Room to Ease’

Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, excluding food and fuel, the measure used by the Fed for its forecasts, rose 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That’s down from more than 2.5 percent as recently as 2008.

The Fed at its Jan. 25 meeting cut its forecast for growth this year to 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent, from a projection of 2.5 percent to 2.9 percent in November. It predicted the economy will expand between 2.8 percent and 3.2 percent next year, down from the previous 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent.

P&G, the maker of CoverGirl cosmetics to Duracell batteries, took advantage of low inflation and interest rates on Feb. 1 when it sold $1 billion of 10-year, 2.3 percent bonds at the lowest coupon on record for corporate securities of that maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Market-Share Loss

The offering came less than a week after the company said on Jan. 27 that market-share loss in dishwashing soap “is not something that we are willing to accept, and we have taken corrective action.” P&G “will be reversing our pricing increase on the Cascade business,” Teri List, vice-president of corporate accounting at Cincinnati-based P&G, said in the conference call.

Kimberly-Clark said fourth-quarter profit fell 18 percent on slowing demand in developed markets where the company is struggling to make some price increases stick. The Dallas-based maker of Kleenex tissues and Scott paper towels said Jan. 24 in a conference call that it issued more coupons in North America on goods, including Huggies Little Movers Slip-On diapers and potty-training pants, soon after raising prices on those items.

Darden is limiting price increases to about 2 percent to 3 percent even as commodity prices soar by emphasizing “affordability” in promotions such as a “Never Ending Pasta Bowl” for $8.95, Chief Operating Officer Andrew Madsen said in a Dec. 16 conference call. “There was more trading to the lower-priced promoted entrees than we have seen historically,” he said.

Most U.S. central bankers see inflation at 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent in 2012, down from the 1.4 percent to 2 percent range they forecast in November, the Fed said Jan. 25.

“The market is still skeptical that the Fed will be able spark inflation expectations significantly,” said CRT’s Ader.


Posted by John Bremner on February 6th, 2012 10:09 AMPost a Comment (0)

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February 3rd, 2012 8:19 AM

By Joe Saluzzi, FT.Com, February 3, 2012

Dear Mark Zuckerberg,

Congratulations on your IPO filing.

We understand that you are faced with a difficult decision soon on where to list your stock.

You have probably heard from your bankers that the Nasdaq exchange is for tech savvy companies like Google and Apple and the NYSE is where the blue chip companies like GE and Caterpillar choose to list.

You may think that the Nasdaq market is more of an electronic exchange where dealers place competing bids and offers to help facilitate institutional client trades.

You may look at financial television and see scenes from the NYSE and think that the NYSE market is more of a floor-based auction model where your stock would trade at a “post” on the exchange.

You may be thinking that regardless of which exchange you pick, your stock will help investors create wealth for themselves by investing in your company for the long-term.

We hate to break the bad news to you but the fact is, in today’s market, it doesn’t matter where you list. Your stock is about to become one of the biggest casino chips on Wall Street.

Ever hear the terms “rebate arbitrage” or “latency arbitrage”? Ever hear of “colocation”? Do you know what “an exchange private data feed” is? How about an “actionable IOI” or a “dark pool”?

We bet you have probably never heard of these terms (maybe you have been too busy coding lately).

These terms are really what stock trading is all about nowadays. Your stock will now be traded by high frequency traders who have an average holding period of 22 seconds.

The majority of them won’t care about your earnings, or your new “likey like” button that you just launched. They won’t care about how many gazillion users you just signed up or how many eyeballs are on your site.

They will only care about flipping your stock for a very small profit – millions of times per day. They will only care about getting paid a rebate 1/3 penny per share to “add liquidity” in your stock.

They are not looking to invest in Facebook, they are looking at it as a tool to help them make money in their high speed arbitrage world.

Before you make your decision on where to list, also keep in mind that one-third of your stock will be traded in dark pools that are off-exchange and away from the public’s eye.

Know that even though the spread in your stock will be one penny (most of the time), your stock will not necessarily be liquid. Sure your stock will trade a lot of volume, but this is not the same as liquidity.

Know that when your stock starts to move around intraday by 3-5 per cent, there will be no one to call to ask what is going on.

You may be thinking now, how did this happen? How did the stock market get so screwed up? What ever happened to the goals of capital raising and investor protection?

Well, it’s a long story. One that is much too long for this letter. Maybe if you have some time, give us a call and we’ll explain what happened.

Best of luck on the IPO. If you pick the NYSE, know that the podium looks much bigger on television.

 

AAII Investor Update, 2-2-2012

Dear Member,

Investors are constantly told to read prospectuses and annual reports. Yet many do not. This is a shame because doing so can reveal important information.

Consider the following details from a registration statement that was recently filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):

  • The company has a very limited operating history and profits have only been realized during the past three years.
  • The primary source of revenues is advertising, but customers are changing to a platform (mobile devices) that the company does not generate any meaningful revenue from.
  • Subscriber growth will slow because of the company’s high penetration rates in its current markets.
  • The CEO controls the majority of all voting power, including final say over who gets elected to the board of directors. Furthermore, because the company is a “controlled company,” the board of directors does not have to be independent.
  • The CEO says his company “was not originally created to be a company” and that he has “always cared primarily about [the company’s] social mission.”
  • Last year, the company spent nearly $700,000 on a corporate jet used in part to fly the CEO’s friends and family.
  • The company anticipates that a substantial number of shares could be sold up to 18 months following the completion of its initial public offering.

If this was all you knew about the company, would you buy shares in it?

If the company’s name is Facebook (FB), many investors will likely answer “yes.” Depending on the size of the initial public offering (IPO), it is possible that demand will outstrip supply for the IPO shares. Enthusiasm about owning stock in the current “next big thing” will cause some to pass over Facebook’s weaknesses.

Speculative investments always come with risks, but sky-high valuations magnify those risks. Media reports estimate the social networking company could be valued between $75 billion and $100 billion at the time of its IPO. If this estimate holds true (details about the price and the number of shares being offered have not been set), Facebook would rank among the 70 largest publicly traded companies. Furthermore, FB shares would command a price-earnings ratio of 150 and price-to-sales ratio of 27. (The price-earning ratio is based on 2011 net income of $668 million attributable to Class A and Class B shareholders.)

As you can see, there are several negatives about Facebook as an investment. Not mentioned yet are concerns about privacy, Facebook’s inability to penetrate China so far and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s lack of experience. The last point is particularly worth considering because running a privately held start-up is very different from managing a closely-watched public company that has to report results on a quarterly basis.

Most of the information above came from Facebook’s S-1 filing. This is a registration statement filed with the SEC before a company goes public. You can find significant information about Facebook, or any other soon-to-be public company, by skimming through the S-1 and looking for potential red flags. Be sure to also look at the footnotes, where you will find such things as the jet used by Zuckerberg’s friends and family.

For companies that are already publicly traded, look at Form 10-K. This is an annual report filed with the SEC. Now that year-end numbers are being reported, companies will soon file updated 10-Ks. It is well worth your time to look at these filings, because they may give you reason to think twice about a stock that looks appealing at first glance.


Posted by John Bremner on February 3rd, 2012 8:19 AMPost a Comment (0)

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February 2nd, 2012 8:58 AM

By Kathleen Madigan, Wall Street Journal, 2-1-2012

Welcome to the January Thaw.

During the fourth-quarter, much of the data surprised on the upside. Hopes built that the recovery had finally gained much-needed momentum. Real gross domestic product could put together back-to-back above-par growth rates; Monthly job gains would rise to a 200,000 sustained rate.

The early-2012 data melted those hopes. The numbers haven’t been disastrous. The economy is growing and businesses are hiring. But the near-misses on expectations confirm headwinds still hobble growth. Expect “moderate” and “modest” to be the primary adjectives to describe growth.

The latest data disappointments include a drop in consumer confidence and factory activity growing slower than expected. The more tepid January numbers shouldn’t be a surprise.

Better-than-expected fourth-quarter numbers were in part a payback to the wait-and-see attitude companies took during the summer’s political wrangling over the federal debt-ceiling limit.

In addition, December benefited from warmer-than-normal temperatures that pulled ahead outside activity that might have been delayed until spring. For instance, construction spending jumped 1.5% in December — surely an anomaly given the overhang of housing and financing difficulties that have plagued the industry.

January numbers look weak in comparison but they shouldn’t be seen as worrisome to the outlook. The problem is that obstacles — from housing to the euro-zone debt crisis — are fighting against the economy building up a full head of steam.

The January downshift will probably carry over to Friday’s jobs report.

“A number of weather and seasonal factors were at play in the last payroll employment report and a partial reversal of these factors in January clouds the outlook of jobs,” says Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist of Mizuho Securities.

On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing Inc. said the private sector added 170,000 new jobs, less than the 292,000 created in December. Because the ADP number was spot on expectations, economists haven’t changed their forecasts for the government’s tally of nonfarm payrolls.

The median number is a January gain of 125,000, unspectacular when compared to the 200,000 added in December. The expected increase is not fast enough to bring down the jobless rate. It’s expected to stay at a high 8.5%.


Posted by John Bremner on February 2nd, 2012 8:58 AMPost a Comment (0)

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February 1st, 2012 9:18 AM

Commercial real estate investors are addicted to debt. There are exceptions, of course. Some buyers out there do all-cash deals. But the industry as a whole cannot sustain itself without a continuous stream of money from commercial and investment banks, conduit lenders, life insurance firms and other creditors.

The experience of the last several years proves that definitively. Easy money fueled the boom years. As we know now, things definitely got out of control. Remember the days of 100 percent financing? And how about those underwriting assumptions that forecast rent bumps, sky-high occupancy rates and rising valuations as far as the eye could see, all to justify larger loans?

When the flow of capital rapidly stopped—especially in the CMBS sector—the commercial real estate party abruptly ended. Since then, investors have suffered through a prolonged hangover. And the throbbing headache, while easing, just won’t go away entirely.

Credit conditions recovered first for top-quality borrowers, class-A assets and in primary markets. Assets with any sort of risk profile and borrowers without a strong track record, however, remain more difficult to finance.

So what does 2012 hold for capital flows?

The good news is that although the economic recovery has been tortured, it is unquestionably a recovery that is taking place. The U.S. gross domestic product continues to grow. Unemployment is falling as well (although some of that is due to people dropping out of the labor force rather than getting jobs).

Moreover, the low interest rate environment has persisted far longer than borrowers or lenders expected. That has created a much needed cushion. Even with lenders being more stringent, borrowing costs are reasonable. And the fact that rates have been so low for so long has provided ample time for commercial real estate owners to deal with property level problems and refinance at reasonable rates.

In other words, the “pretend and extend” tactic that lenders employed has worked. Today, both lenders and borrowers have more options when dealing with distressed assets than they did 24 months ago.

The capital stack today

In 2012, conditions borrowing conditions should continue on their slow ascent.

Our annual Borrower Trends Survey, had more than 300 respondents this year, including both borrowers and lenders. Overall, borrowers are expecting to take out more loans and lenders are anticipating placing more debt. That, in turn, should lead to a further rise in investment sales volumes.

The biggest question remains the CMBS sector. In 2011, more than $35 billion in new issuance occurred. That was more than 2007, 2008 and 2009 combined. But it fell short of what some expected when the year began, thanks to some problems in the summer that led to a slow end to the year. In 2012, expectations are for issuance to rise to perhaps $50 billion. That would put the industry roughly on par with 2002, when $54.03 billion in issuance occurred. But it is a far cry from 2006 and 2007 when $202.69 billion and $230.17 billion in issuance took place, respectively. So there remains a big financing gap in the market.

On the other hand, life insurance companies, historically the most diligent commercial real estate lenders, had a record year in 2011. In the first three quarters alone, life companies placed $34.66 billion—a 71 percent jump from 2010 and a number greater than any previous full year figure. Life insurance firms have their sights set on placing another $45 billion to $50 billion in debt in 2012.

Commercial banks, the largest source of financing for the sector, also are in solid shape. Many firms anticipate placing more debt in 2012 than in 2011 and are increasingly willing to take on higher levels of risk.

Lastly, mezzanine financing is increasingly returning to the picture. That means borrowers facing lower loan-to-value ratios on senior debt (60 percent to 70 percent today vs. 75 percent to 85 percent at the market’s peak) will have options in building capital stacks that go beyond trying to raise additional equity.

Questions remain, however. How long will low interest rates last? Will austerity measures and government budget cutting slow the economy? How will the European sovereign debt crisis affect capital markets? Will commercial real estate fundamentals improve further? And there is the ever-present issue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Reform of those institutions would alter the financing picture for multifamily properties.

In the end, the picture for 2012 is one of a slow recovery. It will build on 2011, but don’t expect any miracles.


Posted by John Bremner on February 1st, 2012 9:18 AMPost a Comment (0)

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January 31st, 2012 8:16 AM

Uncertainty about whether Greece will stay in the euro is crippling its prospects

THE banners at the entrance to the Bank of Greece museum in Athens promise a “fascinating journey through Greece’s modern economic and monetary history”. How could any passer-by resist? Inside the museum ranks of glass cases enclose an array of coins and old bank notes, as well as the paraphernalia used to make them. The bills range from 5 drachma up to 100m drachma, a reminder that Greece has had problems with inflation in the past. The end of history, at least for this exhibition, is 2001 when Greece adopted the euro. But the country’s present troubles suggest an important chapter to the story of Greek money is still to be written. Some reckon the drachma may roll off the presses again.

This is no longer just a fantasy of diehard sceptics about the euro in Britain and Germany. Even Greeks concede that the big problem afflicting the economy, now in its fifth year of recession, is the uncertainty about whether Greece can stay in the euro and get its act together. Savers are anxious that their cash might be forcibly converted to a new Greek currency. By November the Greek banking system had lost a quarter of the deposits it had two years earlier. To fill the gap, the banks have borrowed €43 billion ($56 billion) of emergency funds from the Greek central bank on top of €73 billion of secured loans from the European Central Bank (ECB). Credit remains in short supply because banks have had to cut loans and raise borrowing costs. Informal credit arrangements between firms are breaking down. Foreign suppliers now demand cash payment upfront, making liquidity even scarcer.

Few investors or businesses are brave enough to make long-term bets on the Greek economy in these conditions. The stockmarket has fallen steeply (see chart 1). “You can buy good companies for pocket money,” says one business chief. Assets are cheap but they would become cheaper still were Greece forced out of the euro. Capital spending is down by almost half from four years ago; house building has fallen by two-thirds. The one bright spot is tourism: visitors to Greece were up by 10% last year, in part because tourists steered clear of the unrest in north Africa.

There are hopes that the economy might recover next year if Greece’s place in the euro is confirmed. Agreement on a big new support package from the euro zone and the IMF would put some minds at rest. But a deal on new money cannot be thrashed out until the IMF in particular is sure that Greece’s public finances are on a sustainable path.

That depends, among other things, on private-sector creditors signing up to a bond-exchange deal that will see half of the face value of their Greek paper written off. A deal is proving elusive. Bondholders think Greece’s European rescuers should share in the pain. The ECB has purchased around €40 billion of Greek government bonds, at a discount to their face value, as part of its programme to stabilise bond markets. It stands to make a profit on them, which riles private bondholders. They also want a higher interest rate on the new bonds than officials are willing to sanction. Until a deal is done, Greece is stuck.

From bad to worse

The ever-gloomier diagnoses of Greece’s economy and public finances further complicate negotiations. An IMF report published at the end of last year said that a 50% write-down on private-sector bonds, a target set at an EU summit in October, together with €130 billion of extra official financing at low interest rates would give Greece a decent chance of getting its public debts down to 120% of GDP by 2020.

But that assessment already looks too sanguine. The headwinds facing the economy are proving much stronger than had been forecast. Greece’s GDP probably fell by 6% last year, far more than expected. A weaker economy has made it harder for Greece to meet its fiscal targets. Softer growth in the rest of the euro-zone economy has not helped. But the depth of last year’s slump owes much to a shortage of liquidity, an influence which most economic models ignore, says Yannis Stournaras of IOBE, an Athens think-tank.

The Greek central bank’s figures show that bank credit to households and private firms fell by 2.4% in the year to November. Banks suffering a drain of deposits have had to husband their liquidity. Official lending figures do not reflect the drying up of other sorts of credit. An informal system by which firms used postdated cheques to pay for supplies has broken down, in part because banks are warier of taking them as collateral for short-term loans. Firms complain that the government is slow to pay value-added-tax (VAT) rebates, making the liquidity shortage worse. Few foreigners will supply Greek customers on the basis of a credit guarantee from a Greek bank. So Greek importers, however solid, usually have to pay cash upfront.

Some firms are finding ways round the stigma of being a Greek enterprise and the credit troubles that brings. The headquarters of Aquis, a firm that runs hotels and resorts in Greece, was recently moved to London by its founder, Ioannis Kent. It is now a UK holding company with a British bank account into which the firm’s revenues are paid. Other firms have delayed payments to suppliers and employees.

A necessary fiscal squeeze is adding to the downward spiral and risks becoming self-defeating. The sorts of public spending that are likeliest to induce other economic activity, such as roadbuilding, have been cut, says Mr Stournaras. Big tax increases are not a sure-fire way of raising revenue in a country where taxes are routinely avoided. The rate on restaurant meals was raised from 11% to 23%; such a sharp jump seems almost an invitation to cheat for cash-strapped small businesses. The IMF says a shortfall in VAT receipts suggests some firms are not complying. A hike in car taxes prompted many drivers to hand in their licence plates.

With so many uncertainties, the Greek economy cannot hope to attract the investment it needs to spur recovery. Until a deal on private-sector losses is finalised and implemented, investors cannot rely on a second bail-out package that will keep Greece in the euro. Even if a deal on losses is agreed in principle, a substantial number of holdout creditors could force the Greek government to implement a coercive restructuring. That might further unsettle bond markets and depositors. Banks will also have to be recapitalised after taking losses on their Greek bonds; no one is sure whether they will remain in private hands.

Goodwill hunted

Slow progress on freeing up the economy and cutting the deficit has cast doubt on the ability of Greece’s leaders to implement reforms. Last year the country moved up one place (to 100th) in the World Bank’s rankings of 183 countries for ease of doing business. Businessfolk call for something more radical to demonstrate the country’s commitment to reform.

One suggestion is immediately to shut down lossmaking or underutilised public entities. Another is to tackle the corruption and inefficiency of the tax system by outsourcing the job to foreign tax officials or to a private-sector tax consultancy. That would speed up much-needed use of centralised computer records and stop the face-to-face contact between tax collectors and taxpayers that begets bribery. A signal that banks would operate at arm’s length to the state would also reassure potential investors. So would a high-profile assault on a closed industry.

But Greece’s economic problems are too big to be fixed quickly. Despite a jobless rate that has risen to 18%, Greece still has a current-account deficit of 10% of GDP (see chart 2). For an economy to have so much slack and yet consume more than it produces is a sign of chronic uncompetitiveness. The IMF has said it will take more than a decade for Greece to become competitive. Some reckon it would be easier for Greece to regain its edge by going back to the drachma and devaluing than by keeping the euro and suffering grinding wage deflation. The short-term disruptions would be outweighed by long-term gains.

Most businesspeople see little merit in devaluation. “The empirical evidence is against it,” says Efthymios Vidalis of SEV, Greece’s main business federation. “Greece had two devaluations after joining the European Union and the benefits were short-lived before inflation eroded them. It didn’t work.”

There is another way. When the crisis struck, Apostolos Vakakis, the founder of Jumbo, a Greek retailer, faced a choice: cut costs by 20% or raise productivity by that amount. He chose to improve productivity. In return for a pledge not to cut jobs or wages, Jumbo’s employees agreed to work harder. Each store is now staffed with fewer workers, allowing the firm to open outlets at a faster rate.

 Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies

Many stress the importance of greater competition in bringing business costs down. In contrast to devaluation, the benefits from opening up professions and industries to competition are permanent, says Mr Stournaras of IOBE. “It is the ‘doing business’ sort of competitiveness that matters,” he says. Greek executives point to the lack of competition in trucking, where no new licences have been issued since 1971, as an example of an industry that raises costs for other Greek firms.

Public opinion also still favours the euro: more than 70% of Greeks say they want to stay in the single currency. But if Greece is to have the breathing-space it needs to right its economy, it has to convince its rescuers that they are not throwing good money after bad. A deal on private-sector losses is only a first step; it seems likely that the euro zone will also have to stump up more money than expected to keep Greece going. It will be a while before the drachma printing plates on display in Athens can truly be confined to history.


Posted by John Bremner on January 31st, 2012 8:16 AMPost a Comment (0)

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January 30th, 2012 7:01 AM

The most interesting line in the G.O.P.’s official response to the State of the Union address was Mitch Daniels’s assertion that the United States is in big trouble because “no entity, large or small, public or private, can thrive, or survive intact, with debts as huge as ours.”

Unsurprising as the attack was, its phrasing inadvertently underscored the curious reality of this year’s election; namely, that the same party that loves to inveigh against the dangers of excessive borrowing is now likely to nominate for President a man whose entire career, and entire fortune, was built on debt.

Leveraged-buyout firms like Bain Capital, which Mitt Romney ran between 1984 and 1999, routinely borrow massive sums in order to make their acquisitions, leaving companies with debt loads equal to twice their annual sales or more. (Last year, for instance, the L.B.O. firm Apex Capital borrowed five billion dollars to acquire the medical-technology firm Kinetic Concepts, a company with annual revenues of around two billion dollars.) And they do so while borrowing at much higher interest rates than the federal government has to pay.

L.B.O. firms do borrow less these days than they did in the nineteen-eighties. But they still typically borrow sixty to seventy per cent of the value of the deals they do, and it’s difficult to overstate the centrality of debt to their business model. As a study of a hundred and fifty-three large buyouts showed, companies acquired by L.B.O. firms borrow more than similar public companies. In that sense, one the core advantages of L.B.O. firms is simply their willingness, and their ability, to borrow huge sums of money.

The debt helps juice the firms’ investment returns—as with any investment, the less you put down, the higher your returns will be (assuming things don’t go bust). It also makes them dependent, to a great degree, on credit markets—when credit is loose, as it was for most of the aughts, it’s easy for private-equity firms to make their returns look good (at least in the short run). When credit gets tighter, as it did after 2007, it becomes much harder to do so. As one private-equity manager says in a recent paper by Ulf Strömberg, Tim Jenkinson, Per Axelson, and Michael Weisbach, “Things are really tough because the banks are only lending 4 times cash flow, when they used to lend 6 times cash flow. We can’t make our deals profitable anymore.”

Debt is also valuable to private-equity firms because the government subsidizes their borrowing—corporate interest payments on debt are tax-deductible, while dividend payments (which you can think of as payments on equity) are not. And this tax-subsidized borrowing has been a key part of their success over the years.

The University of Chicago’s Steve Kaplan, arguably the leading researcher in the field and an unabashed defender of private equity, recently wrote a piece extolling private-equity firms’ performance, and attributing their superior returns to their ability to better incentivize and supervise management and their ability to introduce operational improvements.

What Kaplan strangely fails to mention are the advantages created by all the debt these firms take on, even though, in a paper co-authored with Per Strömberg, Kaplan himself wrote that the debt subsidy alone for L.B.O.s in the nineteen-eighties may well have accounted for ten to twenty per cent of the value these deals created. Even if private-equity firms are, in some circumstances, able to do a better job of managing companies, a substantial portion of their superior returns is due simply to the fact that they exploit the U.S. tax code better than most public companies do.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with debt, of course. But if the boom and bust of the past decade taught us anything, it’s that too much private-sector borrowing makes the economy more volatile and unstable. So if the G.O.P. is serious about the perils of excessive borrowing, it could start by limiting the deductibility of corporate debt, which would force companies to rely more on equity financing and would discourage the kind of credit bubbles we’ve seen over the past fifteen years.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for Mitt Romney to do anything about this, though, since his fortune, as we saw from his tax returns this week, has been created by corporate borrowing. And, even as the G.O.P. continues to inveigh against the perils of deficits, the implicit message it’ll send by nominating Romney is quite different: Debt for me, but not for thee.


Posted by John Bremner on January 30th, 2012 7:01 AMPost a Comment (0)

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January 28th, 2012 8:21 AM

By Paul Krugman, New York Times, 1-23-2012

How goes the state of the union? Well, the state of the economy remains terrible. ... But there are reasons to think that we’re finally on the (slow) road to better times. And we wouldn’t be on that road if Mr. Obama had given in to Republican demands that he slash spending, or the Federal Reserve had given in to Republican demands that it tighten money.

Why am I letting a bit of optimism break through the clouds? Recent economic data have been a bit better... More important, there’s evidence that the two great problems at the root of our slump — the housing bust and excessive private debt — are finally easing. ...

There are, of course, still big risks — above all, the risk that trouble in Europe could derail our own incipient recovery. And thereby hangs a tale — a tale told by a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute.

The report tracks progress on “deleveraging,” the process of bringing down excessive debt levels. It documents substantial progress in the United States, which it contrasts with failure to make progress in Europe. And while the report doesn’t say this explicitly, it’s pretty clear why Europe is doing worse than we are: it’s because European policy makers have been afraid of the wrong things.

In particular, the European Central Bank has been worrying about inflation ... rather than worrying about how to sustain economic recovery. And fiscal austerity ... has depressed the economy, making it impossible to achieve urgently needed reductions in private debt. The end result is that for all their moralizing about the evils of borrowing, the Europeans aren’t making any progress against excessive debt — whereas we are.

Back to the U.S. situation: my guarded optimism should not be taken as a statement that all is well. We have already suffered enormous, unnecessary damage because of an inadequate response to the slump. We have failed to provide significant mortgage relief, which could have moved us much more quickly to lower debt. And ... it will be years before we get to anything resembling full employment.

But things could have been worse; they would have been worse if we had followed the policies demanded by Mr. Obama’s opponents. For as I said at the beginning, Republicans have been demanding that the Fed stop trying to bring down interest rates and that federal spending be slashed immediately — which amounts to demanding that we emulate Europe’s failure.

And if this year’s election brings the wrong ideology to power, America’s nascent recovery might well be snuffed out.


Posted by John Bremner on January 28th, 2012 8:21 AMPost a Comment (0)

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January 26th, 2012 7:42 AM

From The Onion, January 25, 2012 | ISSUE 48•04

The most electrifying candidate in the history of American politics.

TAMPA, FL—From coast to coast, town to town, and in nearly every public meeting place and private residence across America, millions have been captivated, inspired, and in some cases moved to tears by presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who now finds himself campaigning before a nation in the throes of full-scale Romneymania.

"The raw energy and enthusiasm Mitt Romney stirs inside people is like nothing I've ever seen," Youngstown, OH auto mechanic Chris Ritenour said Wednesday. "Everything he says resonates with Americans. His moving story of growing up privileged, his inspiring rise from moderate wealth to overwhelming riches, his thrilling work in the highest echelons of corporate finance—he really speaks to the heart and mind of the common man."

"I don't think there's been a presidential candidate this exciting and magnetic in generations, if ever." Ritenour continued. "I am a Romneymaniac."

Enlarge ImageYoung or old, rich or poor, Americans have been united by Romneymania.

As Romneymania has grown, the Republican candidate has crossed over from political figure to cultural phenomenon. Countless reverent portraits of Romney have appeared in storefront windows and on building facades throughout the country, often accompanied by one of the candidate's signature inspirational phrases, like "Let Detroit go bankrupt" or "Corporations are people, my friend."

Internet sources confirmed "Mitt" has become the top search term of 2012, while the blogosphere and social media sites have been dominated by discussions of the star candidate's endearing personality quirks, gossip about the relationship statuses of his five sons, and continual chatter over which designers his wife, Ann, wears.

In addition, commemorative plates and various other trinkets featuring Romney's likeness have reportedly been sold out for weeks.

"Mitt's firm belief in unlimited corporate campaign donations is what first got me really excited," said 48-year-old pipe fitter David Flores, adding that another reason he joined "Romney Nation" was because he found it "pretty cool" that Romney pays a lower income tax rate than he does. "Money is speech—that's what the First Amendment is all about. Finally, there's a candidate who speaks directly to me."

As primary season continues, Americans from all walks of life tune in loyally to Romney's stump speeches, with those in attendance so overwhelmed by the candidate's rousing oratory skills that many pass out from the excitement.

While surveys show Romneymania has swept across almost every demographic, Romney's appeal among the nation's youth, in particular, is nearly unanimous. Many young Americans acknowledged they had felt disillusioned by politics until hearing Romney's explanation of how his coordination of corporate funding for the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics renders him uniquely qualified to be president, an assertion they said immediately revived their faith in American democracy.

"Simply put, when Mitt Romney speaks, he inspires people to be better," said political scientist Deborah Klein of Brown University, adding that given his effusive charisma, people are likely to follow the Republican candidate anywhere. "Anytime he meets factory workers on the campaign trail or stands at the podium in a debate, his reputation as a highly relatable man of the people is indisputable."

"It's easy to see why Americans can't get enough Mitt," Klein added.

During a stop in Tampa, FL earlier this week, Romney was seen whipping a crowd of thousands into a delirious frenzy with his beloved, decade-old talking points about how he is not a career politician. The candidate reportedly inspired optimism and confidence by explaining he "never actually supported an individual mandate for health insurance at the federal level," a battle cry that prompted the audience to chant his name for five straight minutes.

In a moment his supporters called "genuine" and "down-to-earth," Romney then told the crowd that he, too, is currently unemployed and truly understands the fear of being laid off.

"It's amazing to hear your deepest convictions articulated so poignantly by a politician," said out-of-work Denver resident Austin Matthews, 36, admitting he had never before encountered a candidate—or any human being, for that matter—who had connected with him on such a basic emotional level. "He comes right out and says that any acknowledgment of income inequality in the United States is driven solely by bitterness and envy from the lower classes and shouldn't even be discussed publicly. It's like he's tapped directly into the soul of everyday Americans."

"Mitt Romney is the voice of our generation," Matthews added.

At press time, Romney's latest Twitter post, reading, "Had a surprise guest at today's event—my grandson Miles," had been re­tweeted more than 150 million times.


Posted by John Bremner on January 26th, 2012 7:42 AMPost a Comment (0)

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