Interesting Times

Calculated Risk, 8-13-09

The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims increased to 558,000:

In the week ending Aug. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 558,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 565,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average of 556,500.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 1 was 6,202,000, a decrease of 141,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,343,000.
Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 8,500 to 565,000, and is now 93,750 below the peak of 18 weeks ago. It appears that initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle.

The number is still very high (at 558,000), indicating significant weakness in the job market. The four-week average of initial weekly claims will probably have to fall below 400,000 before the total employment stops falling.

The DOL report shows seasonally adjusted insured unemployment at 6.2 million, down from a peak of about 6.9 million. This raises the question of how many unemployed workers have exhausted their regular unemployment benefits (Note: most are still receiving extended benefits, although this is about to change).

The monthly BLS report provides data on workers unemployed for 27 or more weeks, and here is a repeat of that graph ...

Unemployed Over 26 Weeks The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are almost 5.0 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is 3.2% of the civilian workforce.

It is more difficult to calculate the number of workers who have exhausted their extended claims, but that number is expected to rise sharply over the next few months.
Posted by John Bremner on August 13th, 2009 10:47 PMPost a Comment (0)

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